PublisherMary Ann Liebert Inc.
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AbstractWe introduce a Bayesian method for guiding future directions for detection of life on exoplanets. We describe empirical and theoretical work necessary to place constraints on the relevant likelihoods, including those emerging from better understanding stellar environment, planetary climate and geophysics, geochemical cycling, the universalities of physics and chemistry, the contingencies of evolutionary history, the properties of life as an emergent complex system, and the mechanisms driving the emergence of life. We provide examples for how the Bayesian formalism could guide future search strategies, including determining observations to prioritize or deciding between targeted searches or larger lower resolution surveys to generate ensemble statistics and address how a Bayesian methodology could constrain the prior probability of life with or without a positive detection. Copyright 2018 Sara I. Walker et al.
SponsorsE.W.S. is grateful for support from the NASA Postdoctoral Program, administered by the Universities Space Research Association. S.D. was supported by NASA Exobiology grant NNX15AM07G. S.I.W. and H.B.S were supported by NASA Exobiology grant NNX15AL24G. This work benefitted from collaborations and/or information exchange within NASA's Nexus for Exoplanet System Science (NExSS) research co-ordination network sponsored by NASA's Science Mission Directorate.
Identifier to cite or link to this itemhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85049071540&doi=10.1089%2fast.2017.1738&partnerID=40&md5=4887ea9a0b4fcd41cf21693036d5d4f9; http://hdl.handle.net/10713/9649