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    Development of a breast cancer risk prediction model for women in Nigeria

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    Author
    Wang, S.
    Ogundiran, T.
    Ademola, A.
    Date
    2018
    Journal
    Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers and Prevention
    Publisher
    American Association for Cancer Research Inc.
    Type
    Article
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    See at
    https://dx.doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-17-1128
    Abstract
    Background: Risk prediction models have been widely used to identify women at higher risk of breast cancer. We aimed to develop a model for absolute breast cancer risk prediction for Nigerian women. Methods: A total of 1,811 breast cancer cases and 2,225 controls from the Nigerian Breast Cancer Study (NBCS, 1998–2015) were included. Subjects were randomly divided into the training and validation sets. Incorporating local incidence rates, multivariable logistic regressions were used to develop the model. Results: The NBCS model included age, age at menarche, parity, duration of breastfeeding, family history of breast cancer, height, body mass index, benign breast diseases, and alcohol consumption. The model developed in the training set performed well in the validation set. The discriminating accuracy of the NBCS model [area under ROC curve (AUC) = 0.703, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.687–0.719] was better than the Black Women's Health Study (BWHS) model (AUC = 0.605; 95% CI, 0.586–0.624), Gail model for white population (AUC = 0.551; 95% CI, 0.531–0.571), and Gail model for black population (AUC = 0.545; 95% CI, 0.525–0.565). Compared with the BWHS and two Gail models, the net reclassification improvement of the NBCS model were 8.26%, 13.45%, and 14.19%, respectively. Conclusions: We have developed a breast cancer risk prediction model specific to women in Nigeria, which provides a promising and indispensable tool to identify women in need of breast cancer early detection in Sub-Saharan Africa populations. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(6); 636-43. 2018 AACR. Copyright 2018 American Association for Cancer Research.
    Keyword
    Breast--Cancer
    Nigeria
    Risk Factors
    Identifier to cite or link to this item
    https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85047920126&doi=10.1158%2f1055-9965.EPI-17-1128&partnerID=40&md5=5e3fcca3c7b4c90d26ba5481e2b094d9; http://hdl.handle.net/10713/9648
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-17-1128
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    UMB Open Access Articles 2018

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