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    Forecasting demand for maternal influenza immunization in low- and lower-middle-income countries

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    Author
    Debellut, F.
    Hendrix, N.
    Ortiz, J.R.
    Date
    2018
    Journal
    PLoS ONE
    Publisher
    Public Library of Science
    Type
    Article
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    See at
    https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0199470
    Abstract
    Immunization of pregnant women against seasonal influenza remains limited in low- and lower-middle-income countries despite being recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The WHO/PATH Maternal Influenza Immunization Project was created to identify and address obstacles to delivering influenza vaccines to pregnant women in low resource setting. To gain a better understanding of potential demand from this target group, we developed a model simulating pregnant women populations eligible for vaccination during antenatal care (ANC) services in all low- and lower-middle-income countries. We assessed potential vaccine demand in the context of both seasonal and year-round vaccination strategies and identified the ways that immunization programs may be affected by availability gaps in supply linked to current vaccine production cycles and shelf life duration. Results of our analysis, which includes 54 eligible countries in 2015 for New Vaccine Support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, suggest the demand for influenza vaccines could be 7.7 to 16.0 million doses in 2020, and 27.0 to 61.7 million doses by 2029. If current trends in production capacity and actual production of seasonal influenza vaccines were to continue, global vaccine supply would be sufficient to meet this additional demand - although a majority of countries would face implementation issues linked to timing of supply. Copyright 2018 Debellut et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
    Keyword
    Maternal Influenza Immunization Project
    Developing Countries
    Forecasting
    Health Services Needs and Demand
    Influenza Vaccines
    Pregnant Women
    Identifier to cite or link to this item
    https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85048953825&doi=10.1371%2fjournal.pone.0199470&partnerID=40&md5=4daeb8834b8f4ff28f1fc649722d3499; http://hdl.handle.net/10713/9236
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1371/journal.pone.0199470
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