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    A disease progression model estimating the benefit of tolvaptan on time to end-stage renal disease for patients with rapidly progressing autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.

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    Author
    Mader, Gregory
    Mladsi, Deirdre
    Sanon, Myrlene
    Purser, Molly
    Barnett, Christine L
    Oberdhan, Dorothee
    Watnick, Terry
    Seliger, Stephen
    Date
    2022-10-18
    Journal
    BMC nephrology
    Type
    Article
    
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    See at
    https://doi.org/10.1186/s12882-022-02956-8
    Abstract
    Background: Tolvaptan was approved in the United States in 2018 for patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) at risk of rapid progression as assessed in a 3-year phase 3 clinical trial (TEMPO 3:4). An extension study (TEMPO 4:4) showed continued delay in progression at 2 years, and a trial in patients with later-stage disease (REPRISE) provided confirmatory evidence of efficacy. Given the relatively shorter-term duration of the clinical trials, estimating the longer-term benefit associated with tolvaptan via extrapolation of the treatment effect is an important undertaking. Methods: A model was developed to simulate a cohort of patients with ADPKD at risk of rapid progression and predict their long-term outcomes using an algorithm organized around the Mayo Risk Classification system, which has five subclasses (1A through 1E) based on estimated kidney growth rates. The model base-case population represents 1280 patients enrolled in TEMPO 3:4 beginning in chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages G1, G2, and G3 across Mayo subclasses 1C, 1D, and 1E. The algorithm was used to predict longer-term natural history health outcomes. The estimated treatment effect of tolvaptan from TEMPO 3:4 was applied to the natural history to predict the longer-term treatment benefit of tolvaptan. For the cohort, analyzed once reflecting natural history and once assuming treatment with tolvaptan, the model estimated lifetime progression through CKD stages, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and death. Results: When treated with tolvaptan, the model cohort was predicted to experience a 3.1-year delay of ESRD (95% confidence interval: 1.8 to 4.4), approximately a 23% improvement over the estimated 13.7 years for patients not receiving tolvaptan. Patients beginning tolvaptan treatment in CKD stages G1, G2, and G3 were predicted to experience estimated delays of ESRD, compared with patients not receiving tolvaptan, of 3.8 years (21% improvement), 3.0 years (24% improvement), and 2.1 years (28% improvement), respectively. Conclusions: The model estimated that patients treated with tolvaptan versus no treatment spent more time in earlier CKD stages and had later onset of ESRD. Findings highlight the potential long-term value of early intervention with tolvaptan in patients at risk of rapid ADPKD progression.
    Rights/Terms
    © 2022. The Author(s).
    Keyword
    Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease
    Disease modeling
    End-stage renal disease
    Renal function decline
    Tolvaptan
    Identifier to cite or link to this item
    http://hdl.handle.net/10713/20036
    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1186/s12882-022-02956-8
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    • Modelling the long-term benefits of tolvaptan therapy on renal function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: an exploratory analysis using the ADPKD outcomes model.
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    • Issue date: 2019 Apr 23
    • A model to predict disease progression in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD): the ADPKD Outcomes Model.
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