A disease progression model estimating the benefit of tolvaptan on time to end-stage renal disease for patients with rapidly progressing autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.
Author
Mader, GregoryMladsi, Deirdre
Sanon, Myrlene
Purser, Molly
Barnett, Christine L
Oberdhan, Dorothee
Watnick, Terry
Seliger, Stephen
Date
2022-10-18Journal
BMC nephrologyType
Article
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Background: Tolvaptan was approved in the United States in 2018 for patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) at risk of rapid progression as assessed in a 3-year phase 3 clinical trial (TEMPO 3:4). An extension study (TEMPO 4:4) showed continued delay in progression at 2 years, and a trial in patients with later-stage disease (REPRISE) provided confirmatory evidence of efficacy. Given the relatively shorter-term duration of the clinical trials, estimating the longer-term benefit associated with tolvaptan via extrapolation of the treatment effect is an important undertaking. Methods: A model was developed to simulate a cohort of patients with ADPKD at risk of rapid progression and predict their long-term outcomes using an algorithm organized around the Mayo Risk Classification system, which has five subclasses (1A through 1E) based on estimated kidney growth rates. The model base-case population represents 1280 patients enrolled in TEMPO 3:4 beginning in chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages G1, G2, and G3 across Mayo subclasses 1C, 1D, and 1E. The algorithm was used to predict longer-term natural history health outcomes. The estimated treatment effect of tolvaptan from TEMPO 3:4 was applied to the natural history to predict the longer-term treatment benefit of tolvaptan. For the cohort, analyzed once reflecting natural history and once assuming treatment with tolvaptan, the model estimated lifetime progression through CKD stages, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and death. Results: When treated with tolvaptan, the model cohort was predicted to experience a 3.1-year delay of ESRD (95% confidence interval: 1.8 to 4.4), approximately a 23% improvement over the estimated 13.7 years for patients not receiving tolvaptan. Patients beginning tolvaptan treatment in CKD stages G1, G2, and G3 were predicted to experience estimated delays of ESRD, compared with patients not receiving tolvaptan, of 3.8 years (21% improvement), 3.0 years (24% improvement), and 2.1 years (28% improvement), respectively. Conclusions: The model estimated that patients treated with tolvaptan versus no treatment spent more time in earlier CKD stages and had later onset of ESRD. Findings highlight the potential long-term value of early intervention with tolvaptan in patients at risk of rapid ADPKD progression.Rights/Terms
© 2022. The Author(s).Keyword
Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney diseaseDisease modeling
End-stage renal disease
Renal function decline
Tolvaptan
Identifier to cite or link to this item
http://hdl.handle.net/10713/20036ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1186/s12882-022-02956-8
Scopus Count
Collections
Related articles
- Modelling the long-term benefits of tolvaptan therapy on renal function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: an exploratory analysis using the ADPKD outcomes model.
- Authors: Bennett H, McEwan P, Hamilton K, O'Reilly K
- Issue date: 2019 Apr 23
- A model to predict disease progression in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD): the ADPKD Outcomes Model.
- Authors: McEwan P, Bennett Wilton H, Ong ACM, Ørskov B, Sandford R, Scolari F, Cabrera MV, Walz G, O'Reilly K, Robinson P
- Issue date: 2018 Feb 13
- A Post Hoc Analysis of Statin Use in Tolvaptan Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease Pivotal Trials.
- Authors: Shoaf SE, Ouyang J, Sergeyeva O, Estilo A, Li H, Leung D
- Issue date: 2020 May 7
- Effect of Tolvaptan in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease by CKD Stage: Results from the TEMPO 3:4 Trial.
- Authors: Torres VE, Higashihara E, Devuyst O, Chapman AB, Gansevoort RT, Grantham JJ, Perrone RD, Ouyang J, Blais JD, Czerwiec FS, TEMPO 3:4 Trial Investigators
- Issue date: 2016 May 6
- Tolvaptan in Japanese patients with later-stage autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.
- Authors: Oguro M, Kogure Y, Hoshino J, Ubara Y, Mizuno H, Sekine A, Kawada M, Sumida K, Hiramatsu R, Hasegawa E, Yamanouchi M, Hayami N, Suwabe T, Sawa N, Takaichi K
- Issue date: 2018 Dec
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
From posttranslational modifications to disease phenotype: A substrate selection hypothesis in neurodegenerative diseasesBaskakov, Ilia V. (MDPI AG, 2021-01-18)A number of neurodegenerative diseases including prion diseases, tauopathies and synu-cleinopathies exhibit multiple clinical phenotypes. A diversity of clinical phenotypes has been attributed to the ability of amyloidogenic proteins associated with a particular disease to acquire multiple, conformationally distinct, self-replicating states referred to as strains. Structural diversity of strains formed by tau, α-synuclein or prion proteins has been well documented. However, the question how different strains formed by the same protein elicit different clinical phenotypes remains poorly understood. The current article reviews emerging evidence suggesting that posttranslational modifications are important players in defining strain-specific structures and disease phenotypes. This article put forward a new hypothesis referred to as substrate selection hypothesis, according to which individual strains selectively recruit protein isoforms with a subset of posttranslational modifications that fit into strain-specific structures. Moreover, it is proposed that as a result of selective recruitment, strain-specific patterns of posttranslational modifications are formed, giving rise to unique disease phenotypes. Future studies should define whether cell-, region-and age-specific differences in metabolism of posttranslational modifications play a causative role in dictating strain identity and structural diversity of strains of sporadic origin. © 2021 by the author.
-
Vaccination in Chronic Liver Disease: An Update.Alukal, Joseph J; Naqvi, Haider A; Thuluvath, Paul J (Elsevier, 2021-12-08)Patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) with or without cirrhosis remain at risk of developing hepatic decompensation when infected with viral or bacterial pathogens. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) currently recommends vaccination in CLD against hepatitis A virus (HAV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), influenza, pneumococcus, herpes zoster, tetanus, diphtheria, pertussis, and SARS-CoV-2. Inactivated vaccines are preferred over live attenuated ones, especially in transplant recipients where live vaccines are contraindicated. As the severity of the liver disease progresses, vaccine efficacy declines, and therefore, vaccines should be ideally administered early in the disease course for optimal immune response. Despite the strong recommendations, overall vaccination coverage in CLD remains poor; however, it is encouraging to note that in recent years coverage against influenza and pneumococcus has shown some improvement. Inadequate access to healthcare, lack of information on vaccine safety, poor financial reimbursement for healthcare providers, and vaccine misinformation are often responsible for low immunization rates. This review summarizes the impact of vaccine-preventable illness in those with CLD, updated vaccine guidelines, seroconversion rates in the vaccinated, and barriers faced by healthcare professionals in immunizing those with liver disease.
-
Nomenclature for kidney function and disease: Report of a kidney disease: Improving global outcomes (KDIGO) consensus conferenceLevey, Andrew S.; Eckardt, Kai Uwe; Dorman, Nijsje M.; Christiansen, Stacy L.; Hoorn, Ewout J.; Ingelfinger, Julie R.; Inker, Lesley A.; Levin, Adeera; Mehrotra, Rajnish; Palevsky, Paul M.; et al. (JSC Vidal Rus, 2020-03-09)The worldwide burden of kidney disease is rising, but public awareness remains limited, underscoring the need for more effective communication by stakeholders in the kidney health community. Despite this need for clarity, the nomenclature for describing kidney function and disease lacks uniformity. In June 2019, Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) convened a Consensus Conference with the goal of standardizing and refining the nomenclature used in the English language to describe kidney function and disease, and of developing a glossary that could be used in scientific publications. Guiding principles of the conference were that the revised nomenclature should be patient-centered, precise, and consistent with nomenclature used in the KDIGO guidelines. Conference attendees reached general consensus on the following recommendations: (i) to use “kidney” rather than “renal” or “nephro-” when referring to kidney disease and kidney function; (ii) to use “kidney failure” with appropriate descriptions of presence or absence of symptoms, signs, and treatment, rather than “end-stage kidney disease”; (iii) to use the KDIGO definition and classification of acute kidney diseases and disorders (AKD) and acute kidney injury (AKI), rather than alternative descriptions, to define and classify severity of AKD and AKI; (iv) to use the KDIGO definition and classification of chronic kidney disease (CKD) rather than alternative descriptions to define and classify severity of CKD; and (v) to use specific kidney measures, such as albuminuria or decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR), rather than “abnormal” or “reduced” kidney function to describe alterations in kidney structure and function. A proposed 5-part glossary contains specific items for which there was general agreement. Conference attendees acknowledged limitations of the recommendations and glossary, but they considered standardization of scientific nomenclature to be essential for improving communication.