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dc.contributor.authorWells, Chad R
dc.contributor.authorPandey, Abhishek
dc.contributor.authorFitzpatrick, Meagan C
dc.contributor.authorCrystal, William S
dc.contributor.authorSinger, Burton H
dc.contributor.authorMoghadas, Seyed M
dc.contributor.authorGalvani, Alison P
dc.contributor.authorTownsend, Jeffrey P
dc.date.accessioned2022-02-03T18:46:36Z
dc.date.available2022-02-03T18:46:36Z
dc.date.issued2022-01-10
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10713/17867
dc.description.abstractBackground: Numerous countries have imposed strict travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, contributing to a large socioeconomic burden. The long quarantines that have been applied to contacts of cases may be excessive for travel policy. Methods: We developed an approach to evaluate imminent countrywide COVID-19 infections after 0-14-day quarantine and testing. We identified the minimum travel quarantine duration such that the infection rate within the destination country did not increase compared to a travel ban, defining this minimum quarantine as "sufficient." Findings: We present a generalised analytical framework and a specific case study of the epidemic situation on November 21, 2021, for application to 26 European countries. For most origin-destination country pairs, a three-day or shorter quarantine with RT-PCR or antigen testing on exit suffices. Adaptation to the European Union traffic-light risk stratification provided a simplified policy tool. Our analytical approach provides guidance for travel policy during all phases of pandemic diseases. Interpretation: For nearly half of origin-destination country pairs analysed, travel can be permitted in the absence of quarantine and testing. For the majority of pairs requiring controls, a short quarantine with testing could be as effective as a complete travel ban. The estimated travel quarantine durations are substantially shorter than those specified for traced contacts. Funding: EasyJet (JPT and APG), the Elihu endowment (JPT), the Burnett and Stender families' endowment (APG), the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation (JPT and APG), the National Institutes of Health (MCF), Canadian Institutes of Health Research (SMM) and Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada EIDM-MfPH (SMM).en_US
dc.description.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100304en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.relation.ispartofLancet Regional Health. Europeen_US
dc.rights© 2021 The Authors.en_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjectCOVID-19, Coronavirus disease 2019en_US
dc.subjectEU, European Unionen_US
dc.subjectEuropean Unionen_US
dc.subjectRT-PCR testen_US
dc.subjectRT-PCR, Reverse-transcription polymerase chain reactionen_US
dc.subjectSARS CoV-2en_US
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2en_US
dc.subjectVOC, Variant of concernen_US
dc.subjectVariant of concernen_US
dc.subjectantigen testen_US
dc.subjectdisease transmissionen_US
dc.subjectdurationen_US
dc.subjectepidemicen_US
dc.subjectimminent infectionen_US
dc.subjectincidenceen_US
dc.subjectpandemicen_US
dc.subjectpolicyen_US
dc.subjectprevalenceen_US
dc.subjectquarantineen_US
dc.subjecttourismen_US
dc.subjecttravelen_US
dc.titleQuarantine and testing strategies to ameliorate transmission due to travel during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study.en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100304
dc.identifier.pmid35036981
dc.source.journaltitleThe Lancet regional health. Europe
dc.source.beginpage100304
dc.source.endpage
dc.source.countryEngland


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