Identifying transmission patterns through parasite prevalence and entomological inoculation rate
Author
Amoah, BenjaminMcCann, Robert S
Kabaghe, Alinune N
Mburu, Monicah
Chipeta, Michael G
Moraga, Paula
Gowelo, Steven
Tizifa, Tinashe
van den Berg, Henk
Mzilahowa, Themba
Takken, Willem
van Vugt, Michele
Phiri, Kamija S
Diggle, Peter J
Terlouw, Dianne J
Giorgi, Emanuele
Date
2021-10-21Journal
eLifePublisher
eLife Sciences PublicationsType
Article
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Background: Monitoring malaria transmission is a critical component of efforts to achieve targets for elimination and eradication. Two commonly monitored metrics of transmission intensity are parasite prevalence (PR) and the entomological inoculation rate (EIR). Comparing the spatial and temporal variations in the PR and EIR of a given geographical region and modelling the relationship between the two metrics may provide a fuller picture of the malaria epidemiology of the region to inform control activities. Methods: Using geostatistical methods, we compare the spatial and temporal patterns of Plasmodium falciparum EIR and PR using data collected over 38 months in a rural area of Malawi. We then quantify the relationship between EIR and PR by using empirical and mechanistic statistical models. Results: Hotspots identified through the EIR and PR partly overlapped during high transmission seasons but not during low transmission seasons. The estimated relationship showed a 1-month delayed effect of EIR on PR such that at lower levels of EIR, increases in EIR are associated with rapid rise in PR, whereas at higher levels of EIR, changes in EIR do not translate into notable changes in PR. Conclusions: Our study emphasises the need for integrated malaria control strategies that combine vector and human host managements monitored by both entomological and parasitaemia indices.Rights/Terms
© 2021, Amoah et al.Keyword
P. falciparumPlasmodium falciparum
disease mapping
entomological inoculation rate
epidemiology
global health
malaria
model-based geostatistics
parasite prevalence
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http://hdl.handle.net/10713/16969ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.7554/eLife.65682
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