SARS-CoV-2 shifting transmission dynamics and hidden reservoirs potentially limit efficacy of public health interventions in Italy
Author
Giovanetti, MartaCella, Eleonora
Benedetti, Francesca
Rife Magalis, Brittany
Fonseca, Vagner
Fabris, Silvia
Campisi, Giovanni
Ciccozzi, Alessandra
Angeletti, Silvia
Borsetti, Alessandra
Tambone, Vittoradolfo
Sagnelli, Caterina
Pascarella, Stefano
Riva, Alberto
Ceccarelli, Giancarlo
Marcello, Alessandro
Azarian, Taj
Wilkinson, Eduan
de Oliveira, Tulio
Alcantara, Luiz Carlos Junior
Cauda, Roberto
Caruso, Arnaldo
Dean, Natalie E
Browne, Cameron
Lourenco, Jose
Salemi, Marco
Zella, Davide
Ciccozzi, Massimo
Date
2021-04-21Journal
Communications BiologyPublisher
Springer NatureType
Article
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy, one of the countries hit hardest by the pandemic, using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. We observed the co-circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages over time, which were linked to multiple importations and characterized by large transmission clusters concomitant with a high number of infections. Subsequent implementation of a three-phase nationwide lockdown strategy greatly reduced infection numbers and hospitalizations. Yet we present evidence of sustained viral spread among sporadic clusters acting as "hidden reservoirs" during summer 2020. Mathematical modelling shows that increased mobility among residents eventually catalyzed the coalescence of such clusters, thus driving up the number of infections and initiating a new epidemic wave. Our results suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is, ultimately, limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may warrant prioritization during vaccine deployment.Identifier to cite or link to this item
http://hdl.handle.net/10713/15528ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1038/s42003-021-02025-0
Scopus Count
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