• Mortality and Advanced Support Requirement for Patients With Cancer With COVID-19: A Mathematical Dynamic Model for Latin America

      Ruiz-Patiño, A.; Arrieta, O.; Rolfo, C. (American Society of Clinical Oncology, 2020)
      PURPOSE: In the midst of a global pandemic, evidence suggests that similar to other severe respiratory viral infections, patients with cancer are at higher risk of becoming infected by COVID-19 and have a poorer prognosis. METHODS: We have modeled the mortality and the intensive care unit (ICU) requirement for the care of patients with cancer infected with COVID-19 in Latin America. A dynamic multistate Markov model was constructed. Transition probabilities were estimated on the basis of published reports for cumulative probability of complications. Basic reproductive number (R0) values were modeled with R using the EpiEstim package. Estimations of days of ICU requirement and absolute mortality were calculated by imputing number of cumulative cases in the Markov model. RESULTS: Estimated median time of ICU requirement was 12.7 days, median time to mortality was 16.3 days after infection, and median time to severe event was 8.1 days. Peak ICU occupancy for patients with cancer was calculated at 16 days after infection. Deterministic sensitivity analysis revealed an interval for mortality between 18.5% and 30.4%. With the actual incidence tendency, Latin America would be expected to lose approximately 111,725 patients with cancer to SARS-CoV-2 (range, 87,116-143,154 patients) by the 60th day since the start of the outbreak. Losses calculated vary between < 1% to 17.6% of all patients with cancer in the region. CONCLUSION: Cancer-related cases and deaths attributable to SARS-CoV-2 will put a great strain on health care systems in Latin America. Early implementation of interventions on the basis of data given by disease modeling could mitigate both infections and deaths among patients with cancer.
    • Recommendations for detection, prioritization, and treatment of thoracic oncology patients during the COVID-19 pandemic: the THOCOoP cooperative group

      Arrieta, O.; Cardona, A.F.; Rolfo, C. (Elsevier Ireland Ltd, 2020)
      The world currently faces a pandemic due to SARS-CoV-2. Relevant information has emerged regarding the higher risk of poor outcomes in lung cancer patients. As such, lung cancer patients must be prioritized in terms of prevention, detection and treatment. On May 7th, 45 experts in thoracic cancers from 11 different countries were invited to participate. A core panel of experts regarding thoracic oncology care amidst the pandemic gathered virtually, and a total of 60 initial recommendations were drafted based on available evidence, 2 questions were deleted due to conflicting evidence. By May 16th, 44 experts had agreed to participate, and voted on each of the 58 recommendation using a Delphi panel on a live voting event. Consensus was reached regarding the recommendations (>66 % strongly agree/agree) for 56 questions. Strong consensus (>80 % strongly agree/agree) was reached for 44 questions. Patients with lung cancer represent a particularly vulnerable population during this time. Special care must be taken to maintain treatment while avoiding exposure.