Diarrhoeal disease and subsequent risk of death in infants and children residing in low-income and middle-income countries: analysis of the GEMS case-control study and 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study
JournalThe Lancet Global Health
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AbstractBackground: The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) was a 3-year case-control study that measured the burden, aetiology, and consequences of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea (MSD) in children aged 0-59 months. GEMS-1A, a 12-month follow-on study, comprised two parallel case-control studies, one assessing MSD and the other less-severe diarrhoea (LSD). In this report, we analyse the risk of death with each diarrhoea type and the specific pathogens associated with fatal outcomes. Methods: GEMS was a prospective, age-stratified, matched case-control study done at seven sites in Africa and Asia. Children aged 0-59 months with MSD seeking care at sentinel health centres were recruited along with one to three randomly selected matched community control children without diarrhoea. In the 12-month GEMS-1A follow-on study, children with LSD and matched controls, in addition to children with MSD and matched controls, were recruited at six of the seven sites; only cases of MSD and controls were enrolled at the seventh site. We compared risk of death during the period between enrolment and one follow-up household visit done about 60 days later (range 50-90 days) in children with MSD and LSD and in their respective controls. Approximately 50 pathogens were detected using, as appropriate, classic bacteriology, immunoassays, gel-based PCR and reverse transcriptase PCR, and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR). Specimens from a subset of GEMS cases and controls were also tested by a TaqMan Array Card that compartmentalised probe-based qPCR for 32 enteropathogens. Findings: 223 (2.0%) of 11 108 children with MSD and 43 (0.3%) of 16 369 matched controls died between study enrolment and the follow-up visit at about 60 days (hazard ratio [HR] 8.16, 95% CI 5.69-11.68, p<0.0001). 12 (0.4%) of 2962 children with LSD and seven (0.2%) of 4074 matched controls died during the follow-up period (HR 2.78, 95% CI 0.95-8.11, p=0.061). Risk of death was lower in children with dysenteric MSD than in children with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0.20, 95% CI 0.05-0.87, p=0.032), and lower in children with LSD than in those with non-dysenteric MSD (HR 0.29, 0.14-0.59, p=0.0006). In children younger than 24 months with MSD, infection with typical enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, enterotoxigenic E coli encoding heat-stable toxin, enteroaggregative E coli, Shigella spp (non-dysentery cases), Aeromonas spp, Cryptosporidium spp, and Entamoeba histolytica increased risk of death. Of 61 deaths in children aged 12-59 months with non-dysenteric MSD, 31 occurred among 942 children qPCR-positive for Shigella spp and 30 deaths occurred in 1384 qPCR-negative children (HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2-3.9, p=0.0090), showing that Shigella was strongly associated with increased risk of death. Interpretation: Risk of death is increased following MSD and, to a lesser extent, LSD. Considering there are approximately three times more cases of LSD than MSD in the population, more deaths are expected among children with LSD than in those with MSD. Because the major attributable LSD-associated and MSD-associated pathogens are the same, implementing vaccines and rapid diagnosis and treatment interventions against these major pathogens are rational investments. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright 2020 The Author(s).
SponsorsBill and Melinda Gates Foundation, BMGF: 38874, OPP1033572; Material Measurement Laboratory, MML
Identifier to cite or link to this itemhttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85078005447&doi=10.1016%2fS2214-109X%2819%2930541-8&partnerID=40&md5=4207607eccbcf891cc37561781bb5ea2; http://hdl.handle.net/10713/11994
- The incidence, aetiology, and adverse clinical consequences of less severe diarrhoeal episodes among infants and children residing in low-income and middle-income countries: a 12-month case-control study as a follow-on to the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS).
- Authors: Kotloff KL, Nasrin D, Blackwelder WC, Wu Y, Farag T, Panchalingham S, Sow SO, Sur D, Zaidi AKM, Faruque ASG, Saha D, Alonso PL, Tamboura B, Sanogo D, Onwuchekwa U, Manna B, Ramamurthy T, Kanungo S, Ahmed S, Qureshi S, Quadri F, Hossain A, Das SK, Antonio M, Hossain MJ, Mandomando I, Acácio S, Biswas K, Tennant SM, Verweij JJ, Sommerfelt H, Nataro JP, Robins-Browne RM, Levine MM
- Issue date: 2019 May
- Burden and aetiology of diarrhoeal disease in infants and young children in developing countries (the Global Enteric Multicenter Study, GEMS): a prospective, case-control study.
- Authors: Kotloff KL, Nataro JP, Blackwelder WC, Nasrin D, Farag TH, Panchalingam S, Wu Y, Sow SO, Sur D, Breiman RF, Faruque AS, Zaidi AK, Saha D, Alonso PL, Tamboura B, Sanogo D, Onwuchekwa U, Manna B, Ramamurthy T, Kanungo S, Ochieng JB, Omore R, Oundo JO, Hossain A, Das SK, Ahmed S, Qureshi S, Quadri F, Adegbola RA, Antonio M, Hossain MJ, Akinsola A, Mandomando I, Nhampossa T, Acácio S, Biswas K, O'Reilly CE, Mintz ED, Berkeley LY, Muhsen K, Sommerfelt H, Robins-Browne RM, Levine MM
- Issue date: 2013 Jul 20
- The Burden of Cryptosporidium Diarrheal Disease among Children < 24 Months of Age in Moderate/High Mortality Regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, Utilizing Data from the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS).
- Authors: Sow SO, Muhsen K, Nasrin D, Blackwelder WC, Wu Y, Farag TH, Panchalingam S, Sur D, Zaidi AK, Faruque AS, Saha D, Adegbola R, Alonso PL, Breiman RF, Bassat Q, Tamboura B, Sanogo D, Onwuchekwa U, Manna B, Ramamurthy T, Kanungo S, Ahmed S, Qureshi S, Quadri F, Hossain A, Das SK, Antonio M, Hossain MJ, Mandomando I, Nhampossa T, Acácio S, Omore R, Oundo JO, Ochieng JB, Mintz ED, O'Reilly CE, Berkeley LY, Livio S, Tennant SM, Sommerfelt H, Nataro JP, Ziv-Baran T, Robins-Browne RM, Mishcherkin V, Zhang J, Liu J, Houpt ER, Kotloff KL, Levine MM
- Issue date: 2016 May
- Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to identify causes of diarrhoea in children: a reanalysis of the GEMS case-control study.
- Authors: Liu J, Platts-Mills JA, Juma J, Kabir F, Nkeze J, Okoi C, Operario DJ, Uddin J, Ahmed S, Alonso PL, Antonio M, Becker SM, Blackwelder WC, Breiman RF, Faruque AS, Fields B, Gratz J, Haque R, Hossain A, Hossain MJ, Jarju S, Qamar F, Iqbal NT, Kwambana B, Mandomando I, McMurry TL, Ochieng C, Ochieng JB, Ochieng M, Onyango C, Panchalingam S, Kalam A, Aziz F, Qureshi S, Ramamurthy T, Roberts JH, Saha D, Sow SO, Stroup SE, Sur D, Tamboura B, Taniuchi M, Tennant SM, Toema D, Wu Y, Zaidi A, Nataro JP, Kotloff KL, Levine MM, Houpt ER
- Issue date: 2016 Sep 24
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- Authors: Vidal RM, Muhsen K, Tennant SM, Svennerholm AM, Sow SO, Sur D, Zaidi AKM, Faruque ASG, Saha D, Adegbola R, Hossain MJ, Alonso PL, Breiman RF, Bassat Q, Tamboura B, Sanogo D, Onwuchekwa U, Manna B, Ramamurthy T, Kanungo S, Ahmed S, Qureshi S, Quadri F, Hossain A, Das SK, Antonio M, Mandomando I, Nhampossa T, Acácio S, Omore R, Ochieng JB, Oundo JO, Mintz ED, O'Reilly CE, Berkeley LY, Livio S, Panchalingam S, Nasrin D, Farag TH, Wu Y, Sommerfelt H, Robins-Browne RM, Del Canto F, Hazen TH, Rasko DA, Kotloff KL, Nataro JP, Levine MM
- Issue date: 2019 Jan