• Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

      GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators (Lancet Publishing Group, 2018)
      Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s).
    • Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

      GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators (Lancet Publishing Group, 2018)
      Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
    • Late effects after ablative allogeneic stem cell transplantation for adolescent and young adult acute myeloid leukemia

      Lee, C.J.; Kim, S.; Yared, J.A. (American Society of Hematology, 2020)
      There is marked paucity of data regarding late effects in adolescents and young adults (AYAs) who undergo myeloablative conditioning (MAC) allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We evaluated late effects and survival in 826 1-year disease free survivors of MAC HCT for AYA AML, with an additional focus on comparing late effects based upon MAC type (total body irradiation [TBI] vs high-dose chemotherapy only). The estimated 10-year cumulative incidence of subsequent neoplasms was 4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2%-6%); 10-year cumulative incidence of nonmalignant late effects included gonadal dysfunction (10%; 95% CI, 8%-13%), cataracts (10%; 95% CI, 7%-13%), avascular necrosis (8%; 95% CI, 5%-10%), diabetes mellitus (5%; 95% CI, 3%-7%), and hypothyroidism (3%; 95% CI, 2%-5%). Receipt of TBI was independently associated with a higher risk of cataracts only (hazard ratio [HR], 4.98; P , .0001) whereas chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) was associated with an increased risk of cataracts (HR, 3.22; P 5 .0006), avascular necrosis (HR, 2.49; P 5 .006), and diabetes mellitus (HR, 3.36; P 5 .03). Estimated 10-year overall survival and leukemia-free survival were 73% and 70%, respectively, and did not differ on the basis of conditioning type. In conclusion, late effects among survivors of MAC HCT for AYA AML are frequent and are more closely linked to cGVHD than type of conditioning.
    • Novel genetic associations for blood pressure identified via gene-alcohol interaction in up to 570K individuals across multiple ancestries

      Feitosa, M.F.; Kraja, A.T.; Chasman, D.I. (Public Library of Science, 2018)
      Heavy alcohol consumption is an established risk factor for hypertension; the mechanism by which alcohol consumption impact blood pressure (BP) regulation remains unknown. We hypothesized that a genome-wide association study accounting for gene-alcohol consumption interaction for BP might identify additional BP loci and contribute to the understanding of alcohol-related BP regulation. We conducted a large two-stage investigation incorporating joint testing of main genetic effects and single nucleotide variant (SNV)-alcohol consumption interactions. In Stage 1, genome-wide discovery meta-analyses in 131K individuals across several ancestry groups yielded 3,514 SNVs (245 loci) with suggestive evidence of association (P < 1.0 x 10−5 ). In Stage 2, these SNVs were tested for independent external replication in 440K individuals across multiple ancestries. We identified and replicated (at Bonferroni correction threshold) five novel BP loci (380 SNVs in 21 genes) and 49 previously reported BP loci (2,159 SNVs in 109 genes) in European ancestry, and in multi-ancestry meta-analyses (P < 5.0 x 10−8 ). For African ancestry samples, we detected 18 potentially novel BP loci (P < 5.0 x 10−8 ) in Stage 1 that warrant further replication. Additionally, correlated meta-analysis identified eight novel BP loci (11 genes). Several genes in these loci (e.g., PINX1, GATA4, BLK, FTO and GABBR2) have been previously reported to be associated with alcohol consumption. These findings provide insights into the role of alcohol consumption in the genetic architecture of hypertension. Copyright 2018 Public Library of Science. All Rights Reserved.
    • Poor retention and care-related sex disparities among youth living with HIV in rural Mozambique

      Ahonkhai, Aima A; Aliyu, Muktar H; Audet, Carolyn M; Bravo, Magdalena; Simmons, Melynda; Claquin, Gael; Memiah, Peter; Fernando, Anibal N; Carlucci, James G; Shepherd, Bryan E; et al. (Public Library of Science, 2021-05-21)
      BACKGROUND: There are few studies that characterize sex-related differences in HIV outcomes among adolescents and young adults (AYA) 15-24 years of age. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among AYA who enrolled in a comprehensive HIV program in Mozambique between 2012-2016. We assessed patients by sex and pregnancy/lactation status, comparing time to combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation using Cox proportional hazard models. We employed multivariable logistic regression to investigate pre- and post-ART retention. Patients were defined as 'retained pre-ART' if they attended at least 3 of 4 required visits or started ART in the 6 months after enrollment, and 'retained post-ART' if they had any ART pickup or clinical visit during the last 90 days of the one-year follow-up period. RESULTS: Of 47,702 patients in the cohort, 81% (n = 38,511) were female and 19% (n = 9,191) were male. Of the females, 57% (n = 21,770) were non-pregnant and non-lactating (NPNL) and 43% (n = 16,741) were pregnant or lactating (PL). PL (aHR 2.64, 95%CI:2.47-2.81) and NPNL females (aHR 1.36, 95%CI:1.30-1.42) were more likely to initiate ART than males. PL females had higher odds of pre-ART retention in care (aOR 3.56, 95%CI: 3.30-3.84), as did NPNL females (aOR 1.71, 95%CI: 1.62-1.81), compared to males. This was also true for retention post-ART initiation, with higher odds for both PL (aOR 1.78, 95%CI:1.63-1.94) and NPNL females (aOR 1.50, 95%CI:1.35-1.65) compared to males. CONCLUSIONS: PL females were most likely to initiate ART and remain in care post-ART in this AYA cohort, likely reflecting expansion of Option B+. Despite pregnancy and policy driven factors, we observed important sex-related disparities in this cohort. NPNL females were more likely to initiate ART and be retained in care before and after ART initiation than males. These data suggest that young males need targeted interventions to improve these important care continuum outcomes.