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dc.contributor.authorSah, P.
dc.contributor.authorFitzpatrick, M.C.
dc.contributor.authorNeuzil, K.M.
dc.date.accessioned2019-10-17T14:10:40Z
dc.date.available2019-10-17T14:10:40Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85073072752&doi=10.1073%2fpnas.1909613116&partnerID=40&md5=5c19e30c2aa848ff98130ce5fd78a691
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10713/11170
dc.description.abstractThe efficacy of influenza vaccines, currently at 44%, is limited by the rapid antigenic evolution of the virus and a manufacturing process that can lead to vaccine mismatch. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) recently identified the development of a universal influenza vaccine with an efficacy of at least 75% as a high scientific priority. The US Congress approved $130 million funding for the 2019 fiscal year to support the development of a universal vaccine, and another $1 billion over 5 y has been proposed in the Flu Vaccine Act. Using a model of influenza transmission, we evaluated the population-level impacts of universal influenza vaccines distributed according to empirical age-specific coverage at multiple scales in the United States. We estimate that replacing just 10% of typical seasonal vaccines with 75% efficacious universal vaccines would avert ∼5.3 million cases, 81,000 hospitalizations, and 6,300 influenza-related deaths per year. This would prevent over $1.1 billion in direct health care costs compared to a typical season, based on average data from the 2010–11 to 2018–19 seasons. A complete replacement of seasonal vaccines with universal vaccines is projected to prevent 17 million cases, 251,000 hospitalizations, 19,500 deaths, and $3.5 billion in direct health care costs. States with high per-hospitalization medical expenses along with a large proportion of elderly residents are expected to receive the maximum economic benefit. Replacing even a fraction of seasonal vaccines with universal vaccines justifies the substantial cost of vaccine development.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by funding from NIH (Grant U01 GM087719), the Burnett and Stender Families endowment, and the Notsew Orm Sands Foundation.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1909613116en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciencesen_US
dc.relation.ispartofProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
dc.subjectMathematical modelen_US
dc.subjectMedical costen_US
dc.subjectSeasonal vaccineen_US
dc.titleFuture epidemiological and economic impacts of universal influenza vaccinesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1073/pnas.1909613116
dc.identifier.pmid31548402


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